Postmatch editorial
El Salvador turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was El Salvador 3-0 Antigua and Barbuda. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when W. Martínez scored 85' for El Salvador.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 5-1. El Salvador also shaded Possession 67%-33%.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 47.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 81.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.35 against a fair line of 1.33. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
47.5%
Market result
El Salvador
81.3%
BTTS
Yes
60.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Antigua and Barbuda
5
1
Possession
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Antigua and Barbuda
67%
33%
Corners
El SalvadorEl Salvador
Antigua and Barbuda
6
4
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.35
Fair odd
1.33
Edge
1.5%
Stake
1.60u
That ticket matched the final outcome.