Postmatch editorial

Eintracht Frankfurt made the numbers look right

The final score was Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Jean-Mattéo Bahoya scored 81' for Eintracht Frankfurt.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Eintracht Frankfurt led Shots on target 7-2. Eintracht Frankfurt also shaded Total shots 15-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Eintracht Frankfurt the likeliest result at 42.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Eintracht Frankfurt at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.0%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Eintracht Frankfurt

42.8%

Hit

Market result

Eintracht Frankfurt

44.4%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

58.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Freiburg

7

2

Total shots

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Freiburg

15

4

Possession

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Freiburg

63%

37%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.