Postmatch editorial

RB Leipzig turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Conrad Harder scored 81' for RB Leipzig.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: RB Leipzig led Shots on target 5-8. RB Leipzig also shaded Corners 4-6.

Before kickoff, our model made RB Leipzig the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 45.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.20 against a fair line of 2.11. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

RB Leipzig

40.9%

Hit

Market result

RB Leipzig

45.8%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

63.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

RB Leipzig

Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig

5

8

Corners

RB Leipzig

Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig

4

6

Total shots

RB Leipzig

Eintracht Frankfurt

RB Leipzig

16

19

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

2.20

Fair odd

2.11

Edge

4.3%

Stake

0.85u

That ticket matched the final outcome.