Eintracht Frankfurt
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
FC Köln
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 FC Köln. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Alessio Castro-Montes 83', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Eintracht Frankfurt led Corners 8-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Eintracht Frankfurt also shaded Possession 67%-33%.
Before kickoff, our model made Eintracht Frankfurt the likeliest result at 47.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Eintracht Frankfurt at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pinnacle. The market was offering 2.09 against a fair line of 2.01. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Eintracht Frankfurt
47.7%
Market result
Eintracht Frankfurt
52.4%
BTTS
Yes
57.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
8
0
Possession
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
67%
33%
Total shots
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
20
14
Model edge
1
Pinnacle
Market odd
2.09
Fair odd
2.01
Edge
4.0%
Stake
0.86u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.