Postmatch editorial

Egypt turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Egypt 1-0 Guinea-Bissau. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Mohamed Hamdi put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Egypt led Shots on target 3-2. Egypt also shaded Total shots 7-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Egypt the likeliest result at 68.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Egypt at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (64.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Egypt

68.7%

Hit

Market result

Egypt

82.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

64.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Egypt

Egypt

Guinea-Bissau

3

2

Total shots

Egypt

Egypt

Guinea-Bissau

7

6

Corners

Guinea-Bissau

Egypt

Guinea-Bissau

5

6

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.25

Fair odd

1.24

Edge

0.8%

Stake

1.97u

That ticket matched the final outcome.