Postmatch editorial

The script held and Ecuador delivered it

The final score was Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Enner Valencia put the first mark on the match 39', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Ecuador led Possession 71%-29%. Ecuador also shaded Corners 5-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Ecuador the likeliest result at 64.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ecuador at 76.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.50 against a fair line of 1.47. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ecuador

64.6%

Hit

Market result

Ecuador

76.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

57.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Ecuador

Ecuador

Venezuela

71%

29%

Corners

Ecuador

Ecuador

Venezuela

5

2

Total shots

Ecuador

Ecuador

Venezuela

16

10

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.50

Fair odd

1.47

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.31u

That ticket matched the final outcome.