Ecuador
Ecuador won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Argentina
Postmatch editorial
Ecuador found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Ecuador 1-0 Argentina. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Enner Valencia put the first mark on the match 45+13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Ecuador led Shots on target 4-0. Argentina also shaded Corners 2-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Argentina the likeliest result at 37.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Argentina at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Argentina
37.1%
Market result
Argentina
38.2%
BTTS
Yes
51.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
EcuadorEcuador
Argentina
4
0
Corners
ArgentinaEcuador
Argentina
2
8
Total shots
EcuadorEcuador
Argentina
11
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.