Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Nicolas Kühn put the first mark on the match 53', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Dynamo Dresden led Possession 59%-41%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Dynamo Dresden also shaded Shots on target 5-4.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Dynamo Dresden the favourite at 56.8% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Dynamo Dresden

56.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Dynamo Dresden

Dynamo Dresden

Erzgebirge Aue

59%

41%

Shots on target

Dynamo Dresden

Dynamo Dresden

Erzgebirge Aue

5

4

Total shots

Erzgebirge Aue

Dynamo Dresden

Erzgebirge Aue

11

14