Postmatch editorial

The script held and Panama delivered it

The final score was Dominica 1-2 Panama. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when José Fajardo scored 86' for Panama.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Panama led Shots on target 1-6. Panama also shaded Corners 0-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 58.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Nitrogen Sports. The market was offering 1.15 against a fair line of 1.14. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Panama

58.2%

Hit

Market result

Panama

90.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Panama

Dominica

Panama

1

6

Corners

Panama

Dominica

Panama

0

11

Possession

Panama

Dominica

Panama

36%

64%

Model edge

2

Nitrogen Sports

Market odd

1.15

Fair odd

1.14

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.68u

That ticket matched the final outcome.