Postmatch editorial
Jamaica settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Dominica 2-3 Jamaica. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Shamar Nicholson put the first mark on the match 30', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Jamaica led Shots on target 3-7. Jamaica also shaded Total shots 7-20.
Before kickoff, our model made Dominica the likeliest result at 48.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 98.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.07 against a fair line of 1.07. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Dominica
48.5%
Market result
Jamaica
98.0%
BTTS
No
59.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
JamaicaDominica
Jamaica
3
7
Total shots
JamaicaDominica
Jamaica
7
20
Corners
JamaicaDominica
Jamaica
1
8
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
1.07
Fair odd
1.07
Edge
0.0%
Stake
5.00u
That ticket matched the final outcome.