Postmatch editorial

The script held and Sierra Leone delivered it

The final score was Djibouti 1-2 Sierra Leone. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Djibouti struck first through Abdichakour Ibrahim Farah 29', but Sierra Leone recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sierra Leone led Shots on target 1-3. Sierra Leone also shaded Total shots 2-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Sierra Leone the likeliest result at 61.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sierra Leone at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.5%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Sierra Leone

61.8%

Hit

Market result

Sierra Leone

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Sierra Leone

Djibouti

Sierra Leone

1

3

Total shots

Sierra Leone

Djibouti

Sierra Leone

2

7

Corners

Sierra Leone

Djibouti

Sierra Leone

0

5

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.