Djibouti
Burkina Faso won after full-time.
0 - 6
FT
Burkina Faso
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Burkina Faso delivered it
The final score was Djibouti 0-6 Burkina Faso. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Dango Ouattara scored 86' for Burkina Faso.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Burkina Faso led Shots on target 1-6. Burkina Faso also shaded Total shots 3-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Burkina Faso the likeliest result at 58.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Burkina Faso at 90.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Betsson. The market was offering 13.00 against a fair line of 11.44. That translated to an edge of 13.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Burkina Faso
58.1%
Market result
Burkina Faso
90.5%
BTTS
No
59.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Burkina FasoDjibouti
Burkina Faso
1
6
Total shots
Burkina FasoDjibouti
Burkina Faso
3
11
Possession
Burkina FasoDjibouti
Burkina Faso
34%
66%
Model edge
X
Betsson
Market odd
13.00
Fair odd
11.44
Edge
13.6%
Stake
0.26u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.