Postmatch editorial

Lincoln City flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Ben House put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Derby County led Possession 71%-29%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Lincoln City also shaded Total shots 8-14.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Derby County the favourite at 50.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Derby County

50.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Derby County

Derby County

Lincoln City

71%

29%

Total shots

Lincoln City

Derby County

Lincoln City

8

14

Corners

Lincoln City

Derby County

Lincoln City

3

6