Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Derby County 1-3 Crewe Alexandra. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Derby County struck first through Tom Barkhuizen 3', but Crewe Alexandra recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Derby County led Total shots 16-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Derby County also shaded Corners 11-4.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Derby County the favourite at 85.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Derby County

85.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Derby County

Derby County

Crewe Alexandra

16

8

Corners

Derby County

Derby County

Crewe Alexandra

11

4

Possession

Derby County

Derby County

Crewe Alexandra

61%

39%