Postmatch editorial
Real Madrid turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Real Madrid. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Rodrygo scored 76' for Real Madrid.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Real Madrid led Shots on target 2-6. Real Madrid also shaded Total shots 6-13.
Before kickoff, our model made Real Madrid the likeliest result at 61.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Madrid at 62.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Real Madrid
61.1%
Market result
Real Madrid
62.9%
BTTS
No
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Real MadridDeportivo Alavés
Real Madrid
2
6
Total shots
Real MadridDeportivo Alavés
Real Madrid
6
13
Corners
Real MadridDeportivo Alavés
Real Madrid
5
7
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.