Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Rayo Vallecano
Postmatch editorial
Rayo Vallecano settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Rayo Vallecano. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Deportivo Alavés struck first through Toni Martínez 13', but Rayo Vallecano recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Deportivo Alavés led Shots on target 11-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Deportivo Alavés also shaded Corners 10-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Deportivo Alavés the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Deportivo Alavés at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.6%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.47 against a fair line of 2.36. That translated to an edge of 4.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Deportivo Alavés
37.3%
Market result
Deportivo Alavés
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
54.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
11
7
Corners
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
10
5
Total shots
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
19
15
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.47
Fair odd
2.36
Edge
4.7%
Stake
0.74u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.