Deportivo Alavés
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Osasuna
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 2-2 Osasuna. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Lucas Boyé 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Deportivo Alavés led Corners 7-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Deportivo Alavés also shaded Total shots 18-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Deportivo Alavés the likeliest result at 39.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Deportivo Alavés at 38.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Deportivo Alavés
39.6%
Market result
Deportivo Alavés
38.0%
BTTS
Yes
50.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Osasuna
7
1
Total shots
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Osasuna
18
8
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Osasuna
6
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.