Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Mallorca
Postmatch editorial
Deportivo Alavés turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 2-1 Mallorca. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Mallorca struck first through Jan Virgili 18', but Deportivo Alavés recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Deportivo Alavés led Total shots 15-4. Deportivo Alavés also shaded Shots on target 4-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Deportivo Alavés the likeliest result at 51.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Deportivo Alavés at 47.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 4.10 against a fair line of 3.82. That translated to an edge of 7.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Deportivo Alavés
51.5%
Market result
Deportivo Alavés
47.4%
BTTS
No
55.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Mallorca
15
4
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Mallorca
4
2
Corners
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Mallorca
9
4
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
4.10
Fair odd
3.82
Edge
7.3%
Stake
0.49u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.