Deportivo Alavés
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Girona
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 2-2 Girona. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Lucas Boyé 89', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Deportivo Alavés led Total shots 17-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. Deportivo Alavés also shaded Shots on target 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Girona the likeliest result at 37.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Deportivo Alavés at 42.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Girona
37.4%
Market result
Deportivo Alavés
42.0%
BTTS
Yes
52.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Girona
17
10
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Girona
6
5
Possession
GironaDeportivo Alavés
Girona
44%
56%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.