Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
FC Barcelona
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 1-0 FC Barcelona. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Ibrahim Diabaté put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Deportivo Alavés led Shots on target 3-0. FC Barcelona also shaded Possession 23%-77%.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Barcelona the likeliest result at 63.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Barcelona at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 3.85 against a fair line of 3.60. That translated to an edge of 6.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Barcelona
63.8%
Market result
FC Barcelona
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
51.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
FC Barcelona
3
0
Possession
FC BarcelonaDeportivo Alavés
FC Barcelona
23%
77%
Corners
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
FC Barcelona
6
4
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
3.85
Fair odd
3.60
Edge
6.9%
Stake
0.54u
That ticket matched the final outcome.