Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club won after full-time.
2 - 4
FT
Athletic Club
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Athletic Club
The final score was Deportivo Alavés 2-4 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Deportivo Alavés struck first through Antonio Blanco 8', but Athletic Club recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Athletic Club led Corners 4-7. Athletic Club also shaded Total shots 7-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Deportivo Alavés the likeliest result at 36.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Deportivo Alavés
36.6%
Market result
Athletic Club
38.5%
BTTS
Yes
50.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Athletic ClubDeportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
4
7
Total shots
Athletic ClubDeportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
7
9
Shots on target
Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
4
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.