Postmatch editorial

The script held and Denmark delivered it

The final score was Denmark 4-0 North Macedonia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Christian Nørgaard scored 75' for Denmark.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Denmark led Shots on target 9-0. Denmark also shaded Total shots 20-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Denmark the likeliest result at 71.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Denmark at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bwin. The market was offering 1.34 against a fair line of 1.32. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Denmark

71.5%

Hit

Market result

Denmark

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Denmark

Denmark

North Macedonia

9

0

Total shots

Denmark

Denmark

North Macedonia

20

3

Corners

Denmark

Denmark

North Macedonia

11

2

Model edge

1

Bwin

Market odd

1.34

Fair odd

1.32

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.90u

That ticket matched the final outcome.