Postmatch editorial

Denmark made the numbers look right

The final score was Denmark 3-1 Greece. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Rasmus Højlund put the first mark on the match 21', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Denmark led Shots on target 8-4. Greece also shaded Total shots 12-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Denmark the likeliest result at 54.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Denmark at 59.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.9%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Denmark

54.1%

Hit

Market result

Denmark

59.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Denmark

Denmark

Greece

8

4

Total shots

Greece

Denmark

Greece

12

15

Possession

Greece

Denmark

Greece

47%

53%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.