Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Denmark 2-2 Belarus. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Gustav Isaksen 79', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Denmark led Shots on target 10-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Denmark also shaded Total shots 35-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Denmark the likeliest result at 69.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Denmark at 94.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (64.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.11 against a fair line of 1.10. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Denmark

69.7%

Miss

Market result

Denmark

94.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

64.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Denmark

Denmark

Belarus

10

3

Total shots

Denmark

Denmark

Belarus

35

7

Corners

Denmark

Denmark

Belarus

13

3

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.11

Fair odd

1.10

Edge

0.9%

Stake

3.48u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.