Postmatch editorial

Czech Republic made the numbers look right

The final score was Czech Republic 2-0 Montenegro. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Adam Hlozek put the first mark on the match 23', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Czech Republic led Shots on target 7-3. Czech Republic also shaded Total shots 13-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Czech Republic the likeliest result at 73.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Czech Republic at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.40 against a fair line of 1.38. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Czech Republic

73.0%

Hit

Market result

Czech Republic

76.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

Montenegro

7

3

Total shots

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

Montenegro

13

6

Corners

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

Montenegro

8

4

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.40

Fair odd

1.38

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.49u

That ticket matched the final outcome.