Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Czech Republic 2-2 Denmark after extra time. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Kasper Høgh 111', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Denmark led Possession 23%-77%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Denmark also shaded Shots on target 4-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Czech Republic the likeliest result at 48.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Denmark at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.8%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Czech Republic

48.4%

Miss

Market result

Denmark

48.8%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Denmark

Czech Republic

Denmark

23%

77%

Shots on target

Denmark

Czech Republic

Denmark

4

8

Total shots

Denmark

Czech Republic

Denmark

9

22

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.