Cyprus
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Romania
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Cyprus 2-2 Romania. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Charalampos Charalampous 76', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cyprus led Corners 7-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cyprus also shaded Total shots 18-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Romania the likeliest result at 52.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Romania at 57.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 5.90 against a fair line of 5.40. That translated to an edge of 9.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Romania
52.5%
Market result
Romania
57.1%
BTTS
No
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
CyprusCyprus
Romania
7
1
Total shots
CyprusCyprus
Romania
18
8
Shots on target
CyprusCyprus
Romania
8
5
Model edge
1
Betsson
Market odd
5.90
Fair odd
5.40
Edge
9.3%
Stake
0.39u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.