Postmatch editorial
Curacao made the numbers look right
The final score was Curacao 4-0 St. Lucia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Gervane Kastaneer put the first mark on the match 37', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Curacao led Shots on target 10-1. Curacao also shaded Total shots 26-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Curacao the likeliest result at 71.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Curacao at 88.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 1xbet. The market was offering 10.50 against a fair line of 9.34. That translated to an edge of 12.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Curacao
71.3%
Market result
Curacao
88.5%
BTTS
Yes
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CuracaoCuracao
St. Lucia
10
1
Total shots
CuracaoCuracao
St. Lucia
26
6
Corners
CuracaoCuracao
St. Lucia
8
2
Model edge
X
1xbet
Market odd
10.50
Fair odd
9.34
Edge
12.4%
Stake
0.28u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.