Postmatch editorial

Curacao settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Curacao 2-0 Jamaica. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Livano Comenencia put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Jamaica led Corners 0-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Jamaica also shaded Total shots 7-18.

Before kickoff, our model made Curacao the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 3.62 against a fair line of 3.39. That translated to an edge of 6.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Curacao

39.3%

Hit

Market result

Jamaica

43.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Jamaica

Curacao

Jamaica

0

4

Total shots

Jamaica

Curacao

Jamaica

7

18

Shots on target

Jamaica

Curacao

Jamaica

4

7

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

3.62

Fair odd

3.39

Edge

6.8%

Stake

0.54u

That ticket matched the final outcome.