Postmatch editorial
The script held and Curacao delivered it
The final score was Cuba 1-2 Curacao. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Leandro Bacuna put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cuba led Corners 5-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cuba also shaded Possession 54%-46%.
Before kickoff, our model made Curacao the likeliest result at 73.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Curacao at 82.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 1xbet. The market was offering 8.79 against a fair line of 7.88. That translated to an edge of 11.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Curacao
73.4%
Market result
Curacao
82.6%
BTTS
No
56.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
CubaCuba
Curacao
5
1
Possession
CubaCuba
Curacao
54%
46%
Shots on target
Cuba
Curacao
6
6
Model edge
X
1xbet
Market odd
8.79
Fair odd
7.88
Edge
11.5%
Stake
0.32u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.