Postmatch editorial

Cuba turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Cuba 5-0 British Virgin Islands. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Dairon Reyes scored 90+1' for Cuba.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cuba led Shots on target 10-0. Cuba also shaded Total shots 27-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Cuba the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cuba at 96.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (69.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Nitrogen Sports. The market was offering 1.08 against a fair line of 1.08. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cuba

40.9%

Hit

Market result

Cuba

96.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

69.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cuba

Cuba

British Virgin Islands

10

0

Total shots

Cuba

Cuba

British Virgin Islands

27

3

Corners

Cuba

Cuba

British Virgin Islands

12

0

Model edge

1

Nitrogen Sports

Market odd

1.08

Fair odd

1.08

Edge

0.0%

Stake

4.64u

That ticket matched the final outcome.