Postmatch editorial

Bermuda flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Cuba 1-2 Bermuda. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Djair Parfitt put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bermuda led Shots on target 2-3. Cuba also shaded Total shots 8-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Cuba the likeliest result at 49.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cuba at 67.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pncl. The market was offering 1.55 against a fair line of 1.52. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cuba

49.0%

Miss

Market result

Cuba

67.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

62.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bermuda

Cuba

Bermuda

2

3

Total shots

Cuba

Cuba

Bermuda

8

5

Possession

Cuba

Cuba

Bermuda

60%

40%

Model edge

1

Pncl

Market odd

1.55

Fair odd

1.52

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.25u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.