Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Newcastle United
Postmatch editorial
Crystal Palace found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle United. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Newcastle United struck first through William Osula 43', but Crystal Palace recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Crystal Palace led Shots on target 5-3. Crystal Palace also shaded Total shots 11-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Crystal Palace the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Newcastle United at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Crystal Palace
47.8%
Market result
Newcastle United
40.8%
BTTS
Yes
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Newcastle United
5
3
Total shots
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Newcastle United
11
7
Corners
Newcastle UnitedCrystal Palace
Newcastle United
2
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.