Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither Crystal Palace nor Aston Villa found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Crystal Palace led Shots on target 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Aston Villa also shaded Corners 3-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Aston Villa the likeliest result at 38.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Aston Villa at 42.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Aston Villa
38.8%
Market result
Aston Villa
42.2%
BTTS
Yes
56.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Aston Villa
5
3
Corners
Aston VillaCrystal Palace
Aston Villa
3
5
Possession
Aston VillaCrystal Palace
Aston Villa
41%
59%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.