Postmatch editorial

Botafogo flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Gabriel Justino put the first mark on the match 41', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cruzeiro led Corners 9-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cruzeiro also shaded Total shots 16-8.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Cruzeiro the favourite at 56.8% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Cruzeiro

56.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro

Botafogo

9

1

Total shots

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro

Botafogo

16

8

Shots on target

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro

Botafogo

6

4