Postmatch editorial

Croatia made the numbers look right

The final score was Croatia 4-0 Montenegro. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Ivan Perišić scored 90+2' for Croatia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Croatia led Shots on target 13-1. Croatia also shaded Total shots 32-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Croatia the likeliest result at 74.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Croatia at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (64.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.26 against a fair line of 1.25. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Croatia

74.2%

Hit

Market result

Croatia

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

64.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Croatia

Croatia

Montenegro

13

1

Total shots

Croatia

Croatia

Montenegro

32

3

Possession

Croatia

Croatia

Montenegro

75%

25%

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.26

Fair odd

1.25

Edge

0.8%

Stake

1.91u

That ticket matched the final outcome.