Postmatch editorial

Croatia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Croatia 4-1 Canada. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Canada struck first through Alphonso Davies 2', but Croatia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Croatia led Shots on target 10-2. Croatia also shaded Corners 5-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Croatia the likeliest result at 42.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Croatia at 45.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Sbo. The market was offering 6.20 against a fair line of 5.66. That translated to an edge of 9.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Croatia

42.2%

Hit

Market result

Croatia

45.0%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Croatia

Croatia

Canada

10

2

Corners

Croatia

Croatia

Canada

5

2

Total shots

Croatia

Croatia

Canada

13

8

Model edge

X

Sbo

Market odd

6.20

Fair odd

5.66

Edge

9.5%

Stake

0.51u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.