Postmatch editorial

Bologna turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Cremonese 1-2 Bologna. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

João Mário put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bologna led Shots on target 3-7. Bologna also shaded Possession 37%-63%.

Before kickoff, our model made Bologna the likeliest result at 57.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bologna at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.0%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bologna

57.4%

Hit

Market result

Bologna

46.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bologna

Cremonese

Bologna

3

7

Possession

Bologna

Cremonese

Bologna

37%

63%

Total shots

Bologna

Cremonese

Bologna

9

14

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.