Postmatch editorial

The script held and Côte d'Ivoire delivered it

The final score was Côte d'Ivoire 3-0 Kenya. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Amad Diallo scored 84' for Côte d'Ivoire.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Côte d'Ivoire led Shots on target 6-0. Côte d'Ivoire also shaded Total shots 12-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Côte d'Ivoire the likeliest result at 66.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Côte d'Ivoire at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Unibet. The market was offering 10.00 against a fair line of 8.91. That translated to an edge of 12.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Côte d'Ivoire

66.0%

Hit

Market result

Côte d'Ivoire

90.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

57.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

Kenya

6

0

Total shots

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

Kenya

12

1

Possession

Côte d'Ivoire

Kenya

50%

50%

Model edge

X

Unibet

Market odd

10.00

Fair odd

8.91

Edge

12.2%

Stake

0.28u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.