Postmatch editorial

Côte d'Ivoire made the numbers look right

The final score was Côte d'Ivoire 1-0 Gambia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Sébastien Haller put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Côte d'Ivoire led Corners 5-2. Côte d'Ivoire also shaded Possession 53%-47%.

Before kickoff, our model made Côte d'Ivoire the likeliest result at 66.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Côte d'Ivoire at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 1.35 against a fair line of 1.33. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Côte d'Ivoire

66.0%

Hit

Market result

Côte d'Ivoire

76.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

Gambia

5

2

Possession

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

Gambia

53%

47%

Total shots

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

Gambia

12

11

Model edge

1

Marathon

Market odd

1.35

Fair odd

1.33

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.60u

That ticket matched the final outcome.