Côte d'Ivoire
Côte d'Ivoire won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Burundi
Postmatch editorial
Côte d'Ivoire turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Côte d'Ivoire 1-0 Burundi. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Vakoun Bayo put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Côte d'Ivoire led Shots on target 4-0. Côte d'Ivoire also shaded Total shots 11-0.
Before kickoff, our model made Côte d'Ivoire the likeliest result at 71.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Côte d'Ivoire at 82.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Côte d'Ivoire
71.1%
Market result
Côte d'Ivoire
82.6%
BTTS
No
60.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire
Burundi
4
0
Total shots
Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire
Burundi
11
0
Corners
Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire
Burundi
4
1
Model edge
1
Bet365
Market odd
1.22
Fair odd
1.21
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.12u
That ticket matched the final outcome.