Costa Rica
Costa Rica won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
United States
Postmatch editorial
Costa Rica settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Costa Rica 2-0 United States. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Juan Pablo Vargas put the first mark on the match 51', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: United States led Corners 3-12, even though the scoreboard went another way. United States also shaded Total shots 7-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 42.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced United States at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 2.15 against a fair line of 2.07. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Costa Rica
42.0%
Market result
United States
54.6%
BTTS
Yes
53.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
United StatesCosta Rica
United States
3
12
Total shots
United StatesCosta Rica
United States
7
14
Shots on target
United StatesCosta Rica
United States
4
6
Model edge
2
Williamhill
Market odd
2.15
Fair odd
2.07
Edge
3.9%
Stake
0.89u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.