Postmatch editorial

Costa Rica made the numbers look right

The final score was Costa Rica 4-0 St. Kitts and Nevis. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Andy Rojas scored 84' for Costa Rica.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Costa Rica led Shots on target 7-1. Costa Rica also shaded Total shots 23-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 49.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 97.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betclic. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Costa Rica

49.4%

Hit

Market result

Costa Rica

97.1%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

St. Kitts and Nevis

7

1

Total shots

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

St. Kitts and Nevis

23

5

Possession

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

St. Kitts and Nevis

65%

35%

Model edge

1

Betclic

Market odd

1.22

Fair odd

1.21

Edge

0.8%

Stake

3.89u

That ticket matched the final outcome.