Postmatch editorial

Costa Rica turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Costa Rica 4-1 Nicaragua. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Francisco Calvo scored 90+4' for Costa Rica.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Costa Rica led Shots on target 10-2. Costa Rica also shaded Total shots 21-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 62.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 90.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.1%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.16 against a fair line of 1.15. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Costa Rica

62.4%

Hit

Market result

Costa Rica

90.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

10

2

Total shots

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

21

7

Possession

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

35%

65%

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

1.16

Fair odd

1.15

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.58u

That ticket matched the final outcome.