Costa Rica
Costa Rica won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
New Zealand
Postmatch editorial
Costa Rica turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Costa Rica 1-0 New Zealand. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Joel Campbell put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: New Zealand led Total shots 4-15, even though the scoreboard went another way. New Zealand also shaded Corners 1-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 49.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 47.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.05 against a fair line of 1.98. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Costa Rica
49.9%
Market result
Costa Rica
47.4%
BTTS
Yes
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
New ZealandCosta Rica
New Zealand
4
15
Corners
New ZealandCosta Rica
New Zealand
1
6
Possession
New ZealandCosta Rica
New Zealand
33%
67%
Model edge
1
Marathon
Market odd
2.05
Fair odd
1.98
Edge
3.5%
Stake
0.87u
That ticket matched the final outcome.