Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Costa Rica 0-0 Honduras. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Costa Rica nor Honduras found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Costa Rica led Shots on target 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Costa Rica also shaded Possession 57%-43%.

Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 60.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.75 against a fair line of 1.70. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Costa Rica

60.3%

Miss

Market result

Costa Rica

65.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

52.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Honduras

4

2

Possession

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Honduras

57%

43%

Total shots

Honduras

Costa Rica

Honduras

13

16

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.75

Fair odd

1.70

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.12u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.