Postmatch editorial

The pre-match tension never quite broke

The final score was Costa Rica 3-3 Haiti. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Juan Pablo Vargas 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Costa Rica led Total shots 24-11, even though the scoreboard went another way. Costa Rica also shaded Corners 10-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Costa Rica the likeliest result at 42.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 69.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.70 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Costa Rica

42.5%

Miss

Market result

Costa Rica

69.2%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

59.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Haiti

24

11

Corners

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Haiti

10

4

Shots on target

Costa Rica

Costa Rica

Haiti

11

8

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.70

Fair odd

1.66

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.24u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.