Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Costa Rica
The final score was Costa Rica 1-0 Canada. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Celso Borges put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Costa Rica led Shots on target 5-3. Canada also shaded Possession 32%-68%.
Before kickoff, our model made Canada the likeliest result at 40.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Canada at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Canada
40.2%
Market result
Canada
41.7%
BTTS
Yes
54.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Costa RicaCosta Rica
Canada
5
3
Possession
CanadaCosta Rica
Canada
32%
68%
Corners
CanadaCosta Rica
Canada
3
9
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.