Postmatch editorial

Morocco made the numbers look right

The final score was Congo 0-6 Morocco. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Azzedine Ounahi put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Morocco led Shots on target 1-11. Morocco also shaded Total shots 3-21.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 52.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 87.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.19 against a fair line of 1.18. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

52.8%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

87.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

62.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Morocco

Congo

Morocco

1

11

Total shots

Morocco

Congo

Morocco

3

21

Possession

Morocco

Congo

Morocco

37%

63%

Model edge

2

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.19

Fair odd

1.18

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.30u

That ticket matched the final outcome.