Postmatch editorial

Congo DR made the numbers look right

The final score was Congo DR 1-0 South Sudan. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Théo Bongonda put the first mark on the match 45+3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Congo DR led Shots on target 6-1. Congo DR also shaded Corners 12-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Congo DR the likeliest result at 71.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Congo DR at 90.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (64.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betway. The market was offering 1.20 against a fair line of 1.19. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Congo DR

71.7%

Hit

Market result

Congo DR

90.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

64.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Congo DR

Congo DR

South Sudan

6

1

Corners

Congo DR

Congo DR

South Sudan

12

1

Total shots

Congo DR

Congo DR

South Sudan

11

4

Model edge

1

Betway

Market odd

1.20

Fair odd

1.19

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.48u

That ticket matched the final outcome.